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Deutsche Bank Sells 19.6 Million Class A Shares After IPO Lock-Up Period Expired

Update 2: Deutsche Bank sells off its ownership stake, per Red Rock Resorts 8-K filing on Nov. 10, 2016.

Update 1: See “Deutsche Bank to sell $400m stake in Las Vegas gambling group” in Financial Times (Oct. 30, 2016).


Deutsche Bank will soon be able to dispose of its 17% ownership of Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ: RRR), when the Las Vegas gaming company’s IPO lock-up period expires on October 24.

Deutsche Bank is in dire need of additional capital, so we expect it to sell off the Las Vegas casino stake as soon as it can on or after October 24. Deutsche Bank investors should certainly welcome the cash infusion and capital boost that can come from selling and exiting the casino assets.

Deutsche Bank is in the process of selling other non-core assets such as Abbey Life and its stake in China’s Hua Xia Bank. CEO John Cryan noted in July that the lender’s second-quarter revenues “benefited from the IPO of Red Rock Resorts.”

We estimate the German bank’s Las Vegas casino stake to be worth approximately $440 million. (The bank has not disclosed the specific number of Red Rock shares it beneficially owns.) In addition, according to the tax receivable agreement Red Rock signed as part of its IPO, the company is required to pay Deutsche Bank and other pre-IPO owners 85% of certain tax benefits to be realize when Deutsche Bank and other pre-IPO owners sell their ownership interests. The TRA payments will need to be made in cash before the company makes its dividend payments. As of June 30, the company’s TRA liability was $44.5 million.

As Deutsche Bank gaming analysts observed on May 22: [I]t is worth noting that at present, ~21% of the shares outstanding are held by legacy strategic investors, whose core business does not include owning gaming equities. Thus, post the 180 day, from IPO, lock up expiration, we believe the risk of secondary issuances could potentially weigh on shares.”

Deutsche Bank Would Have Valued Red Rock at $5.39 Per Share a Year Ago

Prospective investors in Red Rock Resorts should ask Deutsche Bank how, in its opinion, the value of Station Casinos could have more than tripled in little over a year.

According to a 2/17/15 analyst report by Deutsche Bank gaming high-yield analyst Andrew Zarnett, Station Casinos LLC, as of 12/31/2014, was estimated to have an enterprise value to be $2.59 billion, which would have implied an equity valuation of $624.6 million after subtracting net debt of $1.97 billion. That equity valuation would have translated to about $5.39 per share with the fully-diluted number of shares outstanding of 115.9 million found in Red Rock’s 4/15/16 S-1/A filing

Red Rock’s 4/15/16 S-1/A filing shows an IPO price range of $18.0 to $21.0 per share. Using the mid-point of $19.5 per share and the fully diluted shares outstanding figure of 115.85 million, the company and its underwriters, one of whom is Deutsche Bank, are offering an equity valuation of $2.26 billion and, adding net debt of $2.04 billion, an enterprise value of $4.30 billion for Station Casinos LLC.

Station Casinos Valuation Jump

12/31/14 4/15/16
Enterprise value $2,590 million $4,298 million
Net debt $1,965 million $2,039 million
Equity $625 million $2,259 million
Implied per share price on 115.85 million shares outstanding $5.29 $19.5

From 12/31/14 to 4/15/16, the share prices of four publicly-traded regional gaming operators (BYD, PENN, PNK, ISLE) rose by an average of 61%.

Investors should ask Deutsche Bank how, in its opinion, the value of Station Casinos could have more than tripled in little over a year.

(See also our earlier piece on the estimated valuation Station Casinos equity as implied by SEC filings by Fidelity, a current minority owner.)


Red Rock Resorts is a Second-Class Gaming IPO

Download our unauthorized roadshow presentation and presentation notes here.

Investors who buy Red Rock’s second-class shares on offer will gain a minority (33%) stake in the once-bankrupt Las Vegas casino and tavern operator, Station Casinos. The terms of the offering beg questions about company insiders’ confidence in its long-term prospects.

Prospective investors should ask management the following questions:

Should new shareholders expect significant dilution soon after the IPO thanks to Deutsche Bank’s expected exit? After the IPO, Deutsche Bank owns 16.2-18% of the company after selling very few shares in the current offering. The German lender, which is also an underwriter of this IPO, has been selling off its non-core assets at a loss, including a Las Vegas Strip resort and a New Jersey port operator as it continues to deal with its capital and regulatory challenges. Will it sell off its large Station Casinos/Red Rock stake immediately after the 180-day lock-up period, which may even be waived by Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan as underwriters?

Why is Red Rock paying $460 million in cash to insiders to internalize management with the Fertitta Entertainment acquisition? Red Rock’s prospectus does not present any specific potential benefits of this proposed transaction, yet the price represents (1) 20% of the $2.3-billion IPO valuation of Station Casinos’ equity at the mid-point of its offering price range; (2) 8.7x TTM management fees instead of the 1x TTM management fees for a potential termination of the Fertitta Entertainment management agreements covering at least 13 of 19 casinos; and (3) 31x our estimate of Fertitta Entertainment’s 2015 pro forma EBITDA of about $14.8 million. Even though it did not complete a $300-million dividend recapitalization last spring, Station Casinos has paid out over $477 million to its existing owners from 2013 through April 2016, before consummating this pricy acquisition.

How confident is management in Red Rock’s growth prospects? The Las Vegas locals market, which made up over 90% of Red Rock’s total EBITDA in 2015, has been contracting in terms of total amount wagered and number of slot units, and gaming revenue at the company’s Las Vegas operations grew at an annual compounded rate of only 1.4% from 2012 to 2015. The company has even listed hard-to-come-by potential casino sites in Nevada for sale. As for its tribal business, the company has not signed any new tribal gaming development or management agreements since 2004. Its two current contracts are due to expire in 2018 and 2020, with only one more project in development.

If the Fertitta family is cashing out, why should investors buy Red Rock’s second-class shares with uncertain prospects for dividends? The Fertitta family’s Class B Red Rock shares with 10:1 voting power make the Class A Red Rock shares second-class shares in more ways than one. Furthermore, a lopsided tax receivable agreement without a hard cap on future payments to pre-IPO owners will lead to uncertainty about Red Rock’s future free cash flow and its ability to pay dividends to Red Rock’s second-class shareholders.

It is alarming that potential investors in Red Rock’s second-class IPO are being asked to buy out an insider management company at a high, $460-million valuation, instead of paying down company debt or funding new growth initiatives. Data on the ground in Las Vegas show tepid growth in Red Rock’s core business, underscoring the contrast between an IPO that strengthens a gaming company’s finances and one that drains funds to buy a related-party management company, like Red Rock.


See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO:

 

 

Why is Station Casinos Selling Valuable Casino Sites?

See also: More growth questions about the Las Vegas locals gaming market.


In Red Rock Resorts’ most recent S-1/A, the company says it “control[s] approximately 398 acres of developable land comprised of seven strategically-located parcels in Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada, each of which is zoned for casino gaming and other commercial uses” (3/15/16 S-1/A, p. 116). The filing then lists seven such parcels: Durango/I-115 (70 acres), Wild Wild West/Viva (96 acres), Flamingo/I-215 (58 acres), Via Inspirada/Bicentennial Parkway (45 acres), Boulder Highway (30 acres), Mt. Rose Property (Reno) (88 acres), and South Virginia St/I-580 (Reno) (8 acres).

Two of these sites caught our eye, because they are actually on the market. There is no guarantee that IPO investors will be able to participate in any potential growth tied to these parcels, if they are soon sold off.

The large Mt. Rose site in Reno has been on the market since at least November 3 last year, less than a month after the company made its initial IPO filing on Oct 13.

A 25.5-acre portion of the company’s 30-acre Boulder Highway site in Las Vegas has also been on the market for a while. The parcel for sale is not itself entitled for gaming development, leaving a 5-acre rump for a future casino. The earliest listing we saw was from October 28.

It is unclear why Red Rock does not disclose in its prospectus that these two parcels are currently listed for sale. This lack of disclosure is all the more puzzling given that the company does say that another gaming-entitled parcel in its land bank is for sale – immediately after it lists off the seven parcels mentioned above: “We also own an additional development site in Las Vegas that is zoned for casino gaming and other commercial uses and which is currently for sale.”

This likely refers to what one might call the “Cactus/I-15 site”, which is located off the new Cactus Avenue ramp of I-15 south of the Las Vegas Strip. This parcel has also been on the market since at least October 28, and it is being sold “with a deed restriction precluding any gaming on entire site.” (Station Casinos had announced a “Cactus Station” project at this location back in November, 2008, before the highway exchange was built.)

Gaming-entitled land has been a scarce commodity since Nevada State Senate Bill 208 (“SB 208”) was enacted in 1997 to significantly limit the construction in large urban communities such as Las Vegas/Clark County and Reno/Washoe County. As Red Rock tells prospectus investors, one example of the ability of its “highly-experienced management team, led by the Fertitta family,” to create value has been their “capitalizing on the opportunity created by Nevada’s passage of SB 208 through a series of strategic acquisitions and new developments” (S-1/A, 3/15/16, p. 4). Furthermore, the company believes that “the development of new casino facilities will continue to be limited due to SB 208, which limited casino gaming in the Las Vegas valley to specified gaming districts and established more restrictive criteria for the creation of new gaming districts” (S-1/A, 3/15/16, p. 8). One would thus expect any large, gaming-entitled parcels – such as the ones the company has put on the market – to continue to be quite valuable.

Investors should ask Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos and its IPO underwriters:

  • Why is the company selling valuable casino sites?
  • Where will growth come from if the company is selling off future casino sites?
  • Does the Fertitta-led management team not see value in these parcels?
  • Do they not see growth opportunities that can be realized by developing these sites?
  • Do the Fertittas and other executives of Red Rock have confidence in the company’s core Las Vegas locals business?

See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO:

“Too-Big-To-Regulate”

We recently sent a letter to Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval  to provide the governor with “specific examples of problems related to the approval of the Station Casinos/Red Rock Resorts IPO by the Nevada Gaming Commission on January 21, 2016 in order to illustrate the challenges Nevada faces in regulating a ‘too-big-to-regulate’ significant owner of one of the major gaming companies in Las Vegas.”

The entire letter can be viewed here.

In the letter, we discuss the rushed nature of the approval of the IPO by the Gaming Control Board and Nevada Gaming Commission, Deutsche Bank’s accountability as the parent company and affiliate of a felon, federal regulators’ reactions to the bank’s misconduct, and the relationship between the bank and its designated director at Station Casinos, Mr. Robert A. Cashell, Jr. We also ask whether Nevada’s gaming regulators are too permissive toward “too-big-to-regulator” investors.

Our letter concludes with the following:

We cannot help but worry that Nevada gaming regulators appear unwilling to confront head-on the admittedly complex issues related to a “too-big-to-regulate” investor like Deutsche Bank, which is affiliated with a felon. We are fearful that this apparent unwillingness on the part of our state regulators might invite unwelcome scrutiny from federal officials, especially as federal regulators and investigators continue to work to hold Deutsche Bank accountable for its actions. Some might even begin to question whether Nevada is capable of upholding the “gold standard” of gaming industry regulation when our regulators continue to look the other way and refuse to ask hard questions about why the affiliate of a felon continues to own and profit from casinos in our state.

The entire letter can be viewed here.


See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO:

An Update on Station Casinos Valuation, as Implied by Fidelity Filings

Last November, we noted that a Fidelity fund’s SEC filing implied that it valued Station Casinos’ equity at approximately $1.12 billion at the end of August. On January 28, the same Fidelity fund filed a new quarterly report and presented the values of its holdings as of November 30. The value of its Station Casinos stake dropped by over 5%.

Value as of 8/31/15Value as of 11/30/15Change
1,194,419 shares of Station Holdco LLC$4,384,000$4,157,000-5.2%

Source: Fidelity Puritan Trust Form N-CSR filed 10/28/15 and Form N-Q filed 1/28/16

The implied valuation of Station Casinos would have thus dropped to $1.06 billion at the end of November.

Fidelity, whose funds collectively own 8.7% of economic interest in Station Casinos, did not disclose its valuation methodology. A Fidelity spokesman did say in a statement to the Wall Street Journal last October that the firm has “a rigorous and thorough fair market valuation process for mutual fund holdings.”


See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO: 

The IPO Is Postponed, Per Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank announced on January 28 that the Station Casinos (Red Rock Resorts) IPO had been postponed. According to Co-CEO John Cryan, the decision was made in the previous week “due to market conditions.” On January 21, Station Casinos CFO Marc Falcone had made a presentation of the company’s “$450 million of primary offering of shares” at a special meeting of the Nevada Gaming Control Board.”

Two questions come to mind:

1. Will the Fertitta family and other insiders seek other ways to fund the $460-million Fertitta Entertainment deal even before the IPO goes to market?

Last March, the company sought approval from holders of its $500 million bonds to issue another $300 million of bonds to fund a special distribution to its owners. It cancelled those plans by May for “off-the-record” reasons. In the third quarter last year, it paid distributions of $106.4 million to Station Casinos LLC members, which was more than the company’s EBITDA of $90.0 million in the quarter. According to CFO Marc Falcone’s comments at the Gaming Control Board meeting on January 21, the company currently has $350 million available under its revolving credit facility. Will the company tap the revolver to fund the Fertitta Entertainment acquisition or make other cash distributions to the owners now that the IPO is on hold?

2. Will the terms of the IPO be modified?

We have pointed out various issues with the way the public offering has been structured since it was first announced in October. See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO:

We also sent a letter to the SEC on January 26 to draw attention to certain information missing from the prospectus filings by Red Rock Resorts.

We will keep you updated with more in-depth analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO. Sign up for updates here or follow us on Twitter at @UHGamingRe.

Do You Want to Be a Second-Class Shareholder of Red Rock Resorts?

Read our report, “Do You Want to Be a Second-Class Shareholder of Red Rock Resorts?” 

Red Rock Resorts is proposing a corporate governance structure that will severely limit non-Fertitta shareholder influence.

  • Upon consummation of the IPO, Red Rock Resorts will have a dual-class ownership structure consisting of Class A and Class B shares voting as a single class. While the prospectus does not yet lay out the exact post-IPO numbers of LLC units, Class B shares, and Class A shares, the registration statement makes it abundantly clear that the Fertittas will control the company. Since the Fertittas, through affiliates, are currently the only owners of Station Holdco who own over 30% of the LLC Units, the “super voting stock” provision will only apply to them, assuming they maintain at least 10% of Class A shares after the IPO.
  • Studies show that dual-class structures can affect return for non-controlling shareholders, and a dual-class structure is rare in hospitality companies.
  • The newly formed Red Rock Resorts will include other anti-takeover provisions in addition to the dual-class structure and super voting stock described above.

Red Rock states its board will include three directors it considers independent: Dr. James E. Nave, D.V.M., Robert E. Lewis, and Robert A. Cashell, Jr.

  • Nave and Lewis were also part of the board of former Station Casinos Inc. when it allowed “excessive” equity compensation despite opposition from outside shareholders.
  • Mr. Cashell has served on the board of Station Casinos since 2011 when he was selected as German American Capital Corporation’s (GACC) at-will designee to own 38.58% of Station Voteco LLC, the pre-IPO sole voting member of Station Casinos LLC. Given Deutsche Bank’s multiple levels of transactions with Station Casinos – i.e. existing large LLC unit holder, lender, and IPO underwriter – we question Cashell’s independence and his ability to represent the interests of both a current and future LLC unit holder (as GACC is not selling all of its ownership interest) and new public investors who will hold the Class A shares.
  • Finally, Nave and Lewis comprised the special committee of the board of managers of Station Casinos LLC that recently negotiated the Fertitta Entertainment acquisition, in which Station Casinos will purchase the management company owned by the Fertitta family for $460 million. While it will pay a substantial amount of cash to the Fertittas and other top company executives, it is not clear what benefits Station Casinos LLC derives from the transaction.

See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO:

What is the Red Rock Resorts IPO?

Download our unauthorized roadshow, “Red Rock Resorts: A Second-Class IPO”.


Red Rock Resorts, Inc. is not planning to use IPO proceeds to grow through either asset purchase or new development. It is not planning to reduce its overall indebtedness with the IPO proceeds. Instead, concurrent with the IPO, it is paying out a large sum to insiders in an “internalization” deal that will not generate any new revenues. It is not even planning to buy out the ownership stake held by Deutsche Bank.

Highlights from the report:

  • RRR to pay insiders $460 million to buy zero new revenue. The $460-million price tag of the Fertitta Entertainment acquisition is 8.9 times the trailing-12-month management fee the firm receives from Station Casinos. The non-insider cost for acquiring Fertitta Entertainment should be closer to $52 million, not $460 million because its management agreement covering 13 of the 19 managed properties provides for a termination fee of 1x TTM management fee upon third-party sale of the properties. And existing Fertitta Entertainment executives and corporate employees will stay on and become directly employed by RRR. Moreover, Fertitta Entertainment, whose only existing business is to manage Station Casinos properties, will not generate any revenues after the acquisition, which effectively “internalizes” management. The planned $460-million payout follows payments of over $1.25 billion to the Fertittas and other company insiders over the past decade. If the Fertittas are confident in the future of Station Casinos, why aren’t they taking further equity in the company instead of cashing out?
  • RRR is letting insiders cash out substantial funds through the IPO instead of reducing debt, funding growth or simplifying risks. A Fidelity fund’s filing implies that it valued Station Casinos’ equity value at approximately $1.12 billion at the end of August. This means that the $460 million to be paid for Fertitta Entertainment would equal approximately 41% of RRR’s equity based on this value. Why are the Fertittas choosing to take the new IPO money out of the company rather than strengthen its financial condition or improve its growth prospects?
  • RRR is not planning to buy out Deutsche Bank as an owner, which poses licensing risks because Deutsche Bank has a criminal affiliate. Red Rock Resorts makes it clear that Deutsche Bank is not selling all of its 25% in the company. But RRR has not disclosed the bank’s recent and mounting regulatory problems: a bank subsidiary recently pled guilty to felony wire fraud, the bank itself paid a record $2.519 billion in fines to the U.S. Treasury and world financial regulators, and Deutsche is still under ongoing criminal investigations. These regulatory problems, which are not disclosed in the registration filings, could have implications for RRR shareholders because the company primarily operates in the highly regulated Nevada gaming industry.
  • RRR’s Class A shares will be second-class shares with negligible votes and unclear prospects for dividends. The company will remain controlled by the Fertittas after the IPO. While the family will sell a portion of their equity interest in the offering, they will enjoy 10:1 super voting rights for the foreseeable future, while new public shareholders’ prospects for dividends may be hamstrung by the company’s debt restrictions and tax-benefit obligations that limit Holdco’s ability to pay dividends to the new public company. Moreover, the cost of dual class shares was recently illustrated in hospitality when Marriott prevailed in a contest to acquire Starwood Hotels over a company whose shares had disparate voting rights.
  • How confident are RRR and its controlling shareholders in the company’s core Las Vegas locals business if they are selling valuable casino sites? The company has disclosed in its registration filings that it is selling potential casino sites in spite of the “legal limitations that restrict the development of additional off-Strip gaming properties.” Those sales listings, coupled with a substantial transfer of cash from the company to the Fertittas in this IPO beg the question: Do the Fertittas and the company they control have confidence in its core Las Vegas “locals” business, which provides over 90% of its net revenue?

See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO:

Public Comments by UNITE HERE Culinary Local 226 at Nevada Gaming Commission Meeting on December 17, 2015

In October of this year, Station Casinos filed registration documents with the SEC to take the company public. These filings make it clear that Deutsche Bank will hold both voting and economic rights in Station Casinos following the offering. You will soon have to review and decide whether to approve the company’s application for a public offering.

We have previously communicated our concern that it is dangerous to allow a parent company of a felon to go unlicensed while profiting from Nevada casinos and have asked the Board and Commission to call Deutsche Bank forward for a suitability review. Now that Deutsche Bank is set to own voting rights, we believe this only furthers the need for a suitability review.

In May 2011, the Gaming Commission approved the restructuring of Station Casinos without requiring Deutsche Bank to go through licensing despite its 25% ownership. At the time, Robert Cashell, Jr. was appointed by Deutsche Bank to hold its voting interests in Station Casinos. The Board and Commission made it clear that Deutsche Bank could not interfere with the management or voting rights of its at-will designee, Mr. Cashell.

Station Casinos’ IPO filings appear to demonstrate possible direction from Deutsche Bank. The board of Station Casinos Corp., including Mr. Cashell, has agreed to set limitations on executive compensation based on Deutsche Bank ownership. Specifically, management salaries cannot exceed 105% in the second post-IPO year as long as Deutsche Bank owns at least 5% of Class A shares.

Now that Deutsche Bank is set to own voting rights in Station Casinos through its subsidiary and given the question as to whether the bank may have exercised control over its at-will designee and whether Mr. Cashell may have not acted independently, we believe this only underscores the need to call the bank forward for a suitability review. We believe this should be done even before you formally consider Station Casinos’ application for a public offering.

(For more details, see our Dec.23 letter to Nevada Gaming Commission on Deutsche Bank’s Ownership of voting rights and interference in the proposed Station Casinos IPO.)


See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO: