Will Station Casinos’ Fourth-Quarter Financials Surprise Like They Did in the Third Quarter?
At the Nevada gaming regulators’ meeting on January 21, Red Rock management “hinted that it would like to launch the IPO before it announces fourth-quarter earnings next month,” according to the Las Vegas Review Journal. But what is the rush? Will there be any surprises in the fourth-quarter numbers?
There was a surprise in the company’s third quarter financial statements with respect to cash distributions to members: Station Casinos’ third-quarter cash payouts to its owners was were approximately 118% of its EBITDA. Through the prior eight quarters, from the third quarter of 2013 through the second quarter of 2015, the company’s distributions to members had been running at an average level of about 30.9% of EBITDA per quarter.
The company made $106.4 million of distributions to members of Station Casinos LLC (excluding $3.5 million to non-controlling interests in certain subsidiaries). This amount was greater than the company’s third-quarter Adj. EBITDA of $90.0 million. This large cash distribution followed approval by the Nevada Gaming Commission to allow Station Casinos to “pay financial distributions to the company’s owners without approval from gaming regulators” on May 28, 2015.
Investors should wait until the company has released its fourth quarter results before making a decision on whether to invest in the Red Rock IPO.
See more of our analysis of the Red Rock Resorts/Station Casinos IPO:
- The insiders are cashing out at a high price compared to the company’s estimated equity.
- The tax receivable agreement could drain substantial amount of cash out of the company and affect free cash flow.
- The dual-class structure will make public investors second-class shareholders.
- The lack of disclosure regarding the regulatory problems of Deutsche Bank, a 25% current owner.
- Growth concerns in the company’s primary Las Vegas locals market and the lack of new development agreements in the tribal gaming market.